Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBUF 262001
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
401 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect very warm and humid conditions through mid to late week
before cooler air arrives by the weekend. A few showers and
thunderstorms could occur each day through Wednesday afternoon
mostly along lake breeze boundaries. A period of more widespread
showers and thunderstorms will occur late this week ahead of the
cooldown.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-summer heat and humidity this afternoon with building mid level
ridge across the Mid Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes. Temps in the
upper 80s to around 90 away from the immediate lakeshores are
combining with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s resulting in heat
index solidly into the lower 90s. Special Weather Statement
continues until 6 PM this evening for these higher heat index
values.

Thus far, lone thunderstorm has occurred over easten Lewis county
along a boundary intersecting MLCAPES there are around 1000j/kg.
With minimal shear, the storm is slow moving with main hazard heavy
rain and small hail. Otherwise, the cu has built up but not enough
to produce any additonal showers or thunderstorms over western NY to
the Genesee valley. Could still see a few showers and storms in that
area. Any thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon will fade
by early evening, leaving a warm and muggy night with temps in the
mid to upper 60s for most areas.

On Wednesday, indications are there will be a minimum in showers and
thunderstorm coverage. Greatest potential would be over Niagara
Frontier to the west of Rochester and also over the North Country as
occurred today. As heights slightly relax compared to today and
temps aloft come down slightly, high temps on Wednesday should be a
few degrees lower in the middle to upper 80s instead of upper 80s
to around 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather expected area wide Wednesday night as high pressure
remains in control. Lows Wednesday night will fall back into
the lower to mid 60s.

Return flow will bring increasing chances for showers and some
thunderstorms to the region on Thursday as ridge aloft slides
farther east and moisture from Gulf of Mexico surges northward.
Plan on increasing coverage with daytime heating on Thursday
afternoon. Given presence of larger scale synoptic lift, coverage
of showers and thunderstorms looks to be greater on Thursday
than what will be occurring through Wednesday afternoon. High
temperatures on Thursday mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s
will be tempered by more cloud cover and better chance of rain.

Despite the lack of any real trigger Thursday night, with deep
moisture in place won`t take much to pop off some scattered
showers/isolated storm. Expect warm and sultry conditions Thursday
night out ahead of approaching cold front as it pushes into the
central Great Lakes by early Friday morning. Lows will only fall
back into the mid and upper 60s, with some spots possibly not
getting below 70F.

The most active day of the week still looks to come on Friday as
stronger mid-level height falls and strong cold front plows across
the region. This will not only bring a period of showers and storms
along and ahead of the front, it will also be the leading edge of
some much cooler, drier air that will build across the area heading
into the weekend. On Friday, real push of cooler air will lag behind
the boundary, so one more day of warm and humid conditions, with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Some rain showers will linger Friday night, but by late evening most
areas will be drying out in the wake of the cold frontal passage.
Secondary cold front pushes through the region late Friday night and
Saturday morning. This will usher in real push of much cooler and
much drier air across the region. Any lingering light rain showers
across eastern areas Saturday morning with be few and far between
and will taper off from west to east through the early afternoon.
Highs on Saturday will be back below normal in the middle to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Below Normal Temperatures Through the Period...

An expansive Canadian sfc high will provide us with fair cool
weather through Monday. A complex frontal system will offer the
potential for some showers on Tuesday. Warmer weather will be
guaranteed for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the period.
Still a small chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm at ROC
through early this evening, but chances have lowered from earlier
expectations.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms for the Niagara Frontier.
Thursday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the lower Great
Lakes through Thursday with light winds and minimal wave action. The
weak gradient will allow for onshore breezes to develop during the
afternoon hours. Southwest winds will freshen Friday then shift to
the northwest into Saturday as a cold front crosses the region.

The light winds and a humid airmass will result in areas of dense
fog on Lake Ontario at times through late this week. The risk of fog
will not diminish until later Friday into Saturday as less humid air
arrives.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A very warm airmass will remain across the region today and
Wednesday. Below are the record highs, and record warm minimum
temperatures for today and Wednesday the 27th. Since we are now
in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) the climatic day will run from 1
AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.


Tuesday May 26th Record Highs

Buffalo.....88F 1944
Rochester...90F 1944
Watertown...85F 2010

Tuesday May 26th Record Warm Minimum

Buffalo.....70F 1991
Rochester...68F 1914
Watertown...62F 2018


Wednesday May 27th Record Highs

Buffalo.....89F 1978
Rochester...92F 1978
Watertown...87F 1960

Wednesday May 27th Record Warm Minimum

Buffalo.....69F 1991
Rochester...70F 1918
Watertown...67F 1991

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLA/TMA
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA/JM
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
CLIMATE...Thomas/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion