Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
FXUS61 KBUF 031429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022

Clear skies are forecast for the remainder of the Independence Day
weekend. The next chance of rain will arrive late Monday night
through Tuesday. Otherwise, expect daytime high temperatures to
range from the mid 70s to the low 80s, with the nation`s birthday
being the warmest day.


Surface high pressure will build over the Great Lakes today as its
parent upstream upper level ridge over the Plains advances east.
This will result in ideal weather today with near normal high
temperatures (range of 70s), comfortable dewpoints, light winds, and
cloud free skies.

The surface high should be overhead tonight. This will result in
continued dry and quiescent conditions. Overnight lows tonight will
be cooler than the night prior as clear skies and light winds will
promote ample radiational cooling. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s.


On Monday high pressure will be centered near New Jersey which will
maintain mainly dry weather for Independence Day. A mid level trough
will move east from Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, and this
will encourage an area of mid-level warm air advection to move
across southern Ontario Monday afternoon. This will result in an
increase in cloud cover, especially north of Buffalo and Rochester.
Some light showers or sprinkles are even possible across the North
Country Monday afternoon. It will be a bit warmer, especially across
southern portions where there will be more sunshine which will
support afternoon temperatures reaching into the mid 80s.

It appears Monday evening will remain rain-free, with light
southerly winds. Rain chances will increase late Monday night and
Tuesday as a convectively enhanced mid level shortwave moves through
the northwest flow aloft. A surface trough and weak surface boundary
will move through on Tuesday, and this combined with large scale
ascent from the shortwave and embedded vorticity maxima will support
fairly widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. The most
widespread rain will move across Western NY Tuesday morning into
early afternoon, and then into Central NY Tuesday afternoon. Showers
and cloud cover should limit high temperatures to the mid 70s to
lower 80s on Tuesday.

The mid level trough will move to the eastern seaboard Tuesday
night, with the frontal zone being forced back south of the area and
into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic as a renewed push of
cooler/drier air moves south out of Canada and into the eastern
Great Lakes and New England in the wake of the mid level trough
passage. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off from
north to south with the passage of the front Tuesday night.


During the latter half of next week the frontal boundary that
crossed our region on Tuesday will be situated not too far to our
south, while broad upper level troughing will persist across the
region aloft. Multiple weak shortwave impulses rotating through the
upper trough will periodically interact with this boundary, which
may produce showers and thunderstorms at times. However trying to
time and place any such activity remains difficult given variability
in model guidance at this timeframe. As a result, will only carry
low chances (at most), taking into account diurnal influences and
model consensus. By the time we reach the start of next weekend,
Canadian high pressure looks to ridge into our region and bring a
return to fair dry weather areawide.

As for temperatures...these will remain seasonable throughout this
period with daily highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s...and
nightly lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s.


VFR prevail across all TAF sites. Surface high pressure lying across
the Great Lakes today will ensure VFR through tonight as well.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR but local MVFR possible with chc -SHRA/TSRA.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR but local MVFR possible with chc -SHRA/TSRA.


Expect a few periods of choppy conditions on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario today as winds will ramp up to 12 to 15 knots from time to
time. Despite this, winds and waves are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria through the remainder of the
Independence Day holiday weekend.





SHORT TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion