Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBUF 220613
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
213 AM EDT Fri Oct 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the area through
the morning, as a cold front makes it way through the region. Much
cooler weather will follow through the weekend along with some
spotty showers especially closer to the lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A batch of showers with some embedded thunder associated with a pre-
frontal trough, is currently over the eastern half of Lake Ontario
and the North County, causing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.
This area of showers will move out of the area over the next hour or
two. A cold front is moving into WNY early this morning, and will
continue to track east from WNY to the North Country through the
morning. With this frontal passage, additional showers will be
possible, along with a wind shift to the NW.

Behind the front, notably cooler air and some gustier surface winds
of 25 to 35 mph will develop this morning. Incoming cooler air aloft
could generate a minor lake/upslope response east of the lakes.

Today continues to look like a much cooler day with temperatures
just getting into the 50s, with higher terrain staying in the 40s.
Plenty of cloud cover with some spotty northwest flow lake showers
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The region will remain under the influence of an upper level trough
Friday night through Saturday. Cool with mostly dry conditions
likely Friday night. There could be a few lake effect showers
southeast of Lake Ontario overnight. A shortwave trough with a
strengthening jet will approach western NY Saturday. A cold front
will move across Lake Erie through the day with lake enhanced rain
showers developing with it. There will be a cold airmass ahead and
behind the cold front that moves through the region. The combination
of moisture and lift with the front and lake instability will get
lake effect going. Showers will move into far western NY by Saturday
afternoon, diminishing as they move inland towards the Finger Lakes.
Lake effect showers will slowly diminish Saturday night as drier air
and subsidence moves into the region. A similar evolution will take
place across Lake Ontario Saturday night into Sunday morning with
lake enhanced rain showers developing over the Lake and moving into
the North Country by early Sunday morning. Rain showers will slowly
diminish through the day.

Warm air advection moves into the region later Sunday as the next
system approaches. Guidance is not in agreement with the placement
and timing of a warm front which could bring a soaking rain to parts
of the region. The best chance would be across areas south of
Interstate 90 in western NY but it may stay south of the region too.
If the North Country remains dry with little cloud cover, it could
be a cold night for them with temperatures falling below freezing.

Cool this weekend with highs in the low to mid 50s Saturday and
Sunday. Low temperatures will fall to the mid 30s to low 40s. Some
areas may get lower temperatures if calm and clear conditions move
into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft Monday will give way to an upper level low over the
upper Mid West. This low will open up into an open wave by Monday
evening before sliding east-southeast across Pennsylvania Tuesday.
Said upper level low/trough will support a surface low to cross the
Ohio River Valley and Pennsylvania Monday through Tuesday. Depending
on the track of the surface low, the northern extent of rain
associated with the low will cross the southern portions of the area
Monday and Tuesday, with the best chances lying south of I-90 and
possibly south of the New York/Pennsylvania border.

Upper level ridging will support a surface high over Canada that
will spread south across the region, this will support a brief
interlude in active weather Wednesday.

Then, a strong negatively tilted trough across the upper Plains
Wednesday will cross the upper Great Lakes for the later half of the
work week, which will push a surface low and front across the
region. Therefore, expect increasing chances for rain showers
starting late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Otherwise, temperatures will gradually warm throughout next week
with highs starting off in the low to mid 50s and warming to the
upper 50s to low 60s by Thursday. Expect a similar warming trend
with the lows. Lows will range in the upper 30s across the higher
terrain to the low 40s at the start of the week to a range of 40s
and possibly a few low 50s by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A batch of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move
across the North Country ahead of an initial cold frontal boundary
early this morning. This will result in period of MVFR or lower
conditions from rain and lower cigs. More widespread MVFR to IFR
conditions developing behind a cold front currently over WNY,
following a wind shift to the northwest.

Widespread IFR/MVFR flight conditions will gradually improve during
the day today when lake induced stratus very slowly lift and
possibly scatter out in spots.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of mainly lake
response showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Earlier gusty southwest winds have started to shift to the northwest
behind a passing cold front. This will support small craft headlines
as outlined below. Winds will drop off through the day today as the
frontal boundary moves further away.

Lighter winds will develop later today and Saturday as high pressure
builds in.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Apffel/SW/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/SW/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion