Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBUF 221918
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wavy...slow moving cold front and its associated rainfall will
exit our region tonight. A stronger...more pronounced cold front on
Friday will then lead the charge of a notably colder airmass that
will guarantee very cold weather for the first half of the weekend.
The mid winter weather will be relatively short lived though...as
day to day warming next week will lead to temperatures that will be
more typical of early May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The last...and most prominent...in a series of sfc waves will pass
just south of our region along a stalled frontal boundary early this
evening. Fairly widespread rain south of Lake Ontario ahead of this
system will then steadily taper off...as the wave will exit and drag
a frontal boundary away from our region. Sites north of the Tug Hill
will get little if any pcpn from this event. The vast majority of
the rain should be gone by the time most people get to bed late this
evening. Otherwise...we can anticipate an overcast night with
temperatures settling into the 30s.

A second...more pronounced cold front will then take aim on our
region on Friday. While the bulk of the day will be pcpn free...
convergence ahead and along the distinct frontal boundary may
support a few mixed rain or wet snow showers during the mid-late
afternoon during its passage.

In the wake of the strong cold front...Friday night will turn
MUCH colder with the mercury tumbling to between 10 and 15 over
the western counties and into the single digits east of Lake
Ontario. The return to mid winter weather could be accompanied
by scattered inconsequential snow showers...mainly focused over
the Finger Lakes region where a northerly upslope lake enhanced
flow will be in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Flurries and residual snows showers southeast of the lakes will come
to an end by early Saturday afternoon. After that...dry sunny
conditions will develop as surface ridging slides directly overhead
of the region. Its going to be a chilly day despite some
modification of the air mass with highs ranging from the teens east
of Lake Ontario to low and mid 20s.

Surface high pressure overhead Saturday evening slides southeast of
the Lower Lakes by Sunday morning. A continual modification of the
air mass and southwest flow developing will allow for a quick warm-
up by Sunday afternoon after a chilly start. Highs on Sunday will
warm into the upper 30s to low/mid 40s.

A weakening cold front will bring a chance of rain-snow shower by
Sunday evening and night. Not expecting a lot of precipitation but
enough to bring a few hundredths of an inch or a couple tenths of
snow in some locales overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In the wake of Sunday night`s weak system...ridging will quickly
build across our region at all levels on Monday. Aside from a
possible leftover snow shower or two across the North Country
early...this will result in a dry day along with some partial
sunshine. With neutral to weak cool air advection quickly giving way
to renewed warm air advection in the afternoon...temps should climb
some 3-5 degrees from Sunday`s readings...with highs largely
reaching the lower 40s east of Lake Ontario and the mid to upper 40s
elsewhere. Departing low-level ridging will then maintain fair dry
weather as it slides east across New England Sunday night...with
lows ranging from the upper 20s/lower 30s east of Lake Ontario to
the mid and upper 30s across far western New York.

Tuesday and Wednesday the low-level ridge will slide out into the
western Atlantic...while the next mid-level trough digs from the
Rockies to the western Great Lakes. The latter will encourage the
development of a rather broad and elongated low pressure system
stretching from near James Bay to the Mississippi Valley Tuesday...
with this then pushing across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The warm advection regime and approach of a lead
shortwave out ahead of this system will eventually bring a chance of
showers to the area during Tuesday...though with the timing of the
latter slowing in the guidance it now appears as if drier weather
will largely prevail through at least the first part of the
afternoon...if not longer. The much bigger story though will be our
warming trend kicking into high gear...as the strengthening/
deepening southerly flow of progressively warmer air out ahead of
this system will result in springlike air flooding across our
region...with consensus 925 mb temperatures climbing into the +7C to
+11C range. Coupled with the aforementioned trend toward drier
conditions...this will result in an unseasonably warm day with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 50s across the North Country to the
lower to mid 60s across far western New York...with the warmest
temps found within the usual areas of favored downslope flow along
the Lake Erie shoreline and across the Niagara Frontier.

The unseasonably warm conditions should then last through Tuesday
night and into at least the first part of Wednesday as the frontal
system makes its way further eastward...with shower chances
correspondingly on a general increase through this time. This being
said..since yesterday the model guidance has diverged markedly with
respect to the timing of the trailing cold frontal passage across
our region...with the guidance envelope now suggesting a potential
for this to occur anywhere from Wednesday morning to Thursday
morning. Given this large difference and the rather distant time
frame...will lean close to continuity and a blended approach for
this package...which will allow for one more unseasonably warm and
showery day on Wednesday followed by the cold frontal passage and a
return to much colder weather along with diminishing precipitation
chances Wednesday night and Thursday. Given the strong southerly
flow and what still looks to be 925 mb temps of +10C to +13C out
ahead of the cold front...highs on Wednesday should still manage to
reach the upper 50s and lower 60s even in spite of the expected
shower coverage...with readings then quickly dropping off into the
30s Wednesday night and Thursday in the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR cigs over the bulk of western New York for the remainder of the
afternoon will be accompanied by some light rain. IFR to LIFR cigs
will be found across the Southern Tier.

Tonight...IFR to MVFR cigs will be in place throughout the region as
the rain will push off to the southeast.

On Friday...While many areas will likely experience IFR cigs to
start the day...MVFR cigs will dominate the midday and afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night...MVFR cigs in scattered light snow showers.
Saturday....VFR to MVFR conditions with scattered light snow showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR weather.
Monday...VFR conditions.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions with afternoon showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate southerlies will be found across much of the
region through this evening with winds veering to the west
overnight.

Moderate to fresh westerlies can then be expected ahead of a cold
front on Friday. While this could lead to some choppy conditions on
Lake Erie...it will be more likely that it will generate wave based
small craft advisory conditions on much of Lake Ontario (esp in the
afternoon).

Fresh northwesterlies in the wake of the front will then all but
guarantee small craft advisory conditions on Lake Ontario for Friday
night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion