RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC MD 763

MD 0763 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 221... FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
MD 0763 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle into
southwest Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 221...

Valid 240132Z - 240300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 221 continues.

SUMMARY...A few supercells with the risk for severe hail and another
couple of tornadoes continues into the 9-10 PM CDT time frame.  A
new severe weather watch may be needed prior to the current 10 PM
watch expiration time.

DISCUSSION...Focused low-level convergence and warm advection is
maintaining intense thunderstorm development along the frontal zone
across the northeastern Texas Panhandle.  This is being supported by
strong inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderately
large CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of strong
low-level and deep layer shear.  This environment has been conducive
to at least a couple of tornadic supercells, and may remain so at
least into the 02-03Z time frame, before boundary layer instability
begins to wane and upscale convective growth gradually continues.

Supercell development also continues to develop and propagate off
the dryline to the west of Lubbock.  Low-level shear is generally
weaker across this area, but cells have probably been producing
severe hail.  Some increase in tornadic potential may still not be
out of the question during the next few hours, particularly with the
lead supercell as it propagates northeast of Lubbock, closer to the
strengthening southerly 850 mb jet axis.

..Kerr.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34000257 34630187 35440130 36410071 37220005 37669945
            36769925 35010022 34010064 33390147 33210284 34000257 

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SPC MD 762

MD 0762 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225... FOR PARTS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
MD 0762 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Areas affected...Parts of Upstate New York...central and eastern
Pennsylvania...northwest New Jersey.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...

Valid 240124Z - 240330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms continue across parts of the
northeast. While a threat for isolated severe hail/damaging wind
gusts and a brief tornado persists in the near term, nocturnal
stabilization is expected to limit the temporal extent of the severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters and occasional supercell
structures have been observed across portions of eastern Upstate New
York into central Pennsylvania over the past few hours, a few of
which having a history of isolated damaging wind gusts. In addition,
KCCX radar data has suggested that a few storms across south-central
Pennsylvania may have produced severe hail, evident with MESH
thresholds exceeding 1-2 inches in some cases. The boundary layer
remains relatively warm and marginally unstable, particularly across
central Pennsylvania, where the greatest potential for severe wind
gusts/large hail exists in the short term. Kinematic fields also
remain favorable to support short term threats of large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado (particularly with
the south-central Pennsylvania storms). However, nocturnal cooling
will stratify the boundary layer, increasing inhibition and
weakening storms within a few hours.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40827986 41107715 42797565 43747429 43257327 42107351
            40927368 40297514 39967624 39797715 39937936 40827986 

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SPC MD 760

MD 0760 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
MD 0760 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0760
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Areas affected...Parts of northern Kentucky...southern
Ohio...central and northern West Virginia...far southwest
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...

Valid 240002Z - 240200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of the remainder
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0222, as well as areas just south and
east of the watch in West Virginia. Damaging wind gusts, isolated
instances of severe hail, and a brief tornado or two, remain a
concern for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of organized multicellular clusters persist
across several parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0222. In addition,
a few sustained supercell structures have been observed over the
past few hours across central West Virginia. Large hail has been
reported with a few of these storms over the past hour, with a
recent report of 2.50 inch hail received across Kanawha County. As
such, these storms pose the greatest threat for additional instances
of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado over
the next few hours. 

Meanwhile, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 40-50 knots of bulk effective
shear, and adequate deep-layer ascent associated with both an
approaching cold front combined with upper support via a glancing
mid-level shortwave trough, remains across much of the Ohio Valley,
suggesting that the environment remains favorable for the
continuance of storms producing mainly severe hail and damaging wind
gusts through at least the late evening hours. Thereafter, as
nocturnal cooling begins to stabilize the boundary layer, a gradual
waning of the severe threat can be expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38268612 38348533 39058410 39768329 40188210 40528057
            40057937 39627914 39077929 38627986 38178058 37878149
            37908279 37738421 37758579 38268612 

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