SPC MD 1404

MD 1404 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020

Areas affected...northern into central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 050643Z - 050915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage over much of Oklahoma,
and isolated cells may produce marginally severe hail or wind.
Coverage is not expected to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Isolated cells with periodic hail have developed over
northwest OK, ahead of a larger areal increase in storms moving
southeastward out of KS. These storms are mainly rooted between
850-700 mb, with elevated CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Modest
northwest flow aloft atop west/southwest winds in the lower levels
is resulting in marginally favorable shear profiles for sustained
elevated storms.

While the boundary-layer is rather stable, storms are expected to
increase in coverage through the night via warm advection aloft, and
in association with the weak disturbance aloft. Sufficiently steep
midlevel lapse rates will favor marginal hail, but the hail threat
may decrease with time due to storm interference. Otherwise,
localized strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out as aggregate outflow
increases.

..Jewell/Grams.. 08/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36479962 36879963 37029892 36989807 36299638 35749590
            35089602 34759658 34779775 35109855 35369922 35939951
            36189961 36479962