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SPC MD 1072

MD 1072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN KANSAS
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Mesoscale Discussion 1072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180432Z - 180630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe gusts may continue with storms
overspreading northern Oklahoma through the 2-3 AM time frame.  Due
to the somewhat marginal/localized nature of the severe threat, a
watch is not currently anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A small but sustained vigorous convective cluster
continues to migrate eastward to the north of a remnant surface
boundary associated with strong differential daytime heating.  Near
surface moisture content to the north of this boundary is seasonably
high with dew points in the lower/mid 70s, and this continues to
support sizable mixed layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.  Despite
increasing mid-level inhibition associated with the loss of daytime
heating, fairly strong shear in the lowest 3 km AGL (30-40 kt
evident on VWP from Vance AFB) likely is maintaining strong
low-level lift along the convectively generated cold pool.  Based on
the latest surface and objective analyses, it appears possible that
the environment may remain supportive of the continuation of this
activity through 07-08Z, into areas as far east as Tulsa.  This
probably will also continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to
severe gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37059764 36789623 35879556 35269630 35739703 35999822
            36589779 37059764 

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