Forecast Discussion

330
FXUS61 KBUF 141839
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Streamers of lake effect snow will continue to fly tonight on a
north to northwest wind flow south of both eastern Great Lakes.
Otherwise a cold night with temperatures dropping down into the
single digits for portions of Western New York, while east of Lake
Ontario where some clearing will occur, below zero readings will be
common. Winds will back to southwesterly later in the night shifting
lake snows back to the north, that with an increase in moisture
Monday, will drop several more inches of snow northeast of Lake
Erie, with potential for another foot of snow to fall east of Lake
Ontario through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow continues this afternoon on a northwest flow across
the region, with activity south of Lake Ontario enhanced by a
southward dropping arctic front. Northerly flow behind this front
will likely maintain lake effect streams south of both eastern Great
Lakes through the night.

Late tonight the wind flow begins to back in response to the passage
of a surface ridge of high pressure. This will begin to organize a
band of lake effect snow on a southwest flow off Lake Erie, while
still westerly flow over Lake Ontario. Still plenty of dry air with
the surface ridge nearby to keep activity light.

Monday afternoon a shortwave trough aloft will ripple across our
region, bringing an increase in synoptic moisture, that with
favorable lake effect snow parameters, will increase the intensity
of the lake effect snowbands, northeast of Lake Erie and west of
Lake Ontario. Advisory level snows, with afternoon commute travel
impacts are likely for the northern Niagara Frontier through Monday
night, while a longer fetch over Lake Ontario and enhancement from
upstream Lake Erie will allow for warning level snow amounts Monday
afternoon through Monday night. Snowfall rates east of Lake Ontario
may reach up to 3 inches per hour for an hour or two Monday evening,
with snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour otherwise. Outside the lake
enhanced bands of snow, just a coating to an inch of fresh snow
Monday with the Clipper low passing through.

Later Monday night the mean wind flow begins to lighten, allowing
for the snowbands to contract back towards the Lakes and weaken with
dry air advecting through the snow DGZ and lowering lake inversion
heights.

Remaining cold, with lows tonight dropping below zero east of Lake
Ontario. Around zero, and below wind chills for WNY, while a few
locations east of Lake Ontario may reach negative teens for wind
chills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough exits the Northeast coast Tuesday, a more
zonal and progressive flow pattern will spread across the eastern
United States. Initially, surface high pressure centered over the
Southeastern Atlantic Coast ridging northward across the eastern
Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Ongoing lake effect snow, east of Lake
Ontario will continue to peter out and push north across the
Watertown metro area through Tuesday afternoon. Additional snow
amounts of up to an inch will be possible.

Aforementioned surface high pressure will slide east off of the
Atlantic coast Tuesday night supporting, strong warm air advection
will ensue aloft. Overall, dry weather and seasonable weather is
expected Tuesday night.

Heading into Wednesday, the next weak trough will slide east across
the eastern Great Lakes supporting a weak cold front to pass across
western and north central New York. Ahead of the frontal passage,
warm air advection will support temperatures to rise above normal.
Additionally associated with the frontal passage, chances for a few
rain showers and higher elevation snow showers, mainly east of Lake
Ontario.

A transient ridge will pass across the region Wednesday night,
supporting another brief period of dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep southwesterly flow ensues across the region Thursday as a
sharp, but progressive mid/upper level trough digs south across the
upper Mississippi Valley. Strong warm air advection and deeper
moisture streaming in from the south ahead of this feature will
bring the likelihood of mainly rain showers by Thursday afternoon as
temperatures rise into the upper 30s and 40s. It will also become
very windy as a 60-70 knot southerly low-level jet moves across the
area. Being that the jet is in the warm air advection side of the
system, expect only partial mixing down of the winds aloft. That
said, a very tight pressure gradient setting up across the area due
to strong low pressure moving into the upper Great Lakes will bring
the potential for strong winds, especially across downslope areas.

A round of rain and wind is then expected Thursday night as a strong
cold front plows across the area. Rain will rapidly change to snow
behind the front due to a shot of much colder air moves in behind
the boundary. 40-50 knot low-level jet lingers in the cold air
advection regime as deepening low pressure pulls northeast into
southern Quebec, so expect gusty winds for Thursday night and Friday
as well, with temperatures feeling much more like winter once again
to finish out the work week. Some potential lake effect snow on
Friday as well with much colder air in place. This powerful system
and cold front will need to be monitored closely over the coming
days for potential impactful weather (especially strong winds)
across western and north central area.

The roller coaster of temperatures will continue through the
weekend, as a strong warm front pushes across the region boosting
temperatures back towards normal Saturday, before falling back
towards normal Sunday with the passage of a cold front. With the
frontal passages, brings the chance for rain/higher terrain snow
showers Saturday and snow showers Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS lake effect snow continues downwind of the eastern
Great Lakes, with a southward bound cold front driving snow south of
Lake Ontario (KROC), while a westerly flow off Lake Erie ahead of
the front maintains snow east of Lake Erie (KJHW). Snow may brush by
KBUF/KIAG this afternoon. By late afternoon and through a good
portion of tonight a north-northwest flow may yield narrow streamers
of snow, that may impact KROC with brief flight reductions.

Later tonight winds will back around to southwesterly and collect
lake effect snowbands back northward. A few hours of additional snow
with flight reductions for KJHW late tonight. As flow increases
along the long fetch of Lake Erie a more prominent band of snow will
orient towards KBUF/KIAG by the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon...IFR/LIFR northeast of Lake Erie, and east of
Lake Ontario in lake enhanced snow.

Tuesday...Local IFR in lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario early,
otherwise improving to VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a chance for a few rain/snow
showers east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing along
with strong southerly winds. Rain changes to snow Thursday night
along a cold front passage. Strong winds veer from southerly to
westerly.

Friday...Localized IFR in lake effect snow. Otherwise MVFR/VFR.
Strong westerly to northwesterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A secondary cold front has dropped across Lake Ontario, with winds
shifting to northerly behind the front. This will maintain small
craft conditions...including the Lower Niagara River this evening.

There will be a very brief break in the winds late tonight and early
Monday morning. Another clipper cold front will then cross the
eastern Great Lakes Monday afternoon and Monday night. This will
bring another period of strong WSW winds to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario Monday late morning through Monday night, with high end
Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ006>008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ019-020-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/JM
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion