Forecast Discussion

479
FXUS61 KBUF 201753
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms possible through the weekend,
especially east of Lake Ontario today.

2) A soaking rainfall arrives Monday, then drier weather
returns Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms possible through the
weekend, especially east of Lake Ontario today.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of
the weekend, especially east of Lake Ontario closer to the influence
of the departing low today. Otherwise...much of the time will be
precipitation free for most locations with a mix of clouds and
sunshine. Less windy conditions expected this afternoon but still on
the breezy side with occasional gusts up to 25 mph. Temps will be a
bit below normal with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Key Message 2...A soaking rainfall arrives Monday, then drier
weather returns Tuesday.

A vigorous shortwave within the broad upper trough is advertised to
track east into the Ohio Valley Sunday night with its precipitation
shield arriving across WNY early Monday morning. That said...there
still remains some uncertainty to where the H850 thermal boundary
will become establish across the region and then placement of the
heaviest precipitation. With this update...guidance suggests that
the highest probabilities of seeing north of 0.75 of an inch will
reside from the I-90 south to the NY/PA line. Some locations (S.
Tier) could even see precip amounts well north of an inch (1.0-1.5")
before winding down Monday evening. Again...this will all depend on
the track of the surface low and subsequent location of the west to
east oriented warm frontal boundary. Eitherway...will need to
monitor it for the potential for heavy rainfall.

With the departure of the surface low drier weather will return
Tuesday as high pressure build in across the Lower Lakes. Although,
an isolated showers still can`t be ruled out across the North
Country Tuesday afternoon. Unsettled weather returns Thursday and
Friday with chances for showers and Thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across the region this afternoon.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across southwestern NY
and the North Country this afternoon. A brief period of MVFR/IFR is
possible in any heavy showers or thunderstorms. Mostly dry weather
is expected in between these two areas.

An area of showers and lowering ceilings are expected to move across
western NY tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected with IFR across the
higher terrain including KJHW. Conditions will improve from north to
south late tonight through Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings will linger
across the western Southern Tier.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR, rain developing overnight with MVFR/IFR late.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely. Chance of a few thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds will continue to produce choppy conditions across the
shoreline of Lake Ontario this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect through this evening. Winds will diminish across the Lakes
tonight. Westerly winds increase Sunday, however only a light chop
is expected on the Lakes.

An easterly flow will increase across the Lakes late Sunday night
through Monday as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ003>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion