Forecast Discussion

625
FXUS61 KBUF 112333
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
733 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing chances for thunderstorms Tuesday across western NY. A
few storms may be strong to severe.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Some showers will again be possible this evening.


2) The next round of rain showers arrives late Monday night with
strong thunderstorms possible across western NY Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some showers will again be possible this evening.

An area of showers associated with the deformation band will wrap
back in across WNY this evening. This will provide yet another
chance for some light measurable precipitation, with no more than a
tenth of an inch in spots overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The next round of rain showers arrives late Monday
night with strong thunderstorms possible across western NY Tuesday.

The next low pressure system will pass east across the Great Lakes
late Monday and into Tuesday, pushing a cold front southeast across
the region Tuesday evening. Ahead of the front and aligned with a
leading shortwave, expect another round of rain showers Tuesday from
the Niagara Frontier east towards the North Country. A few
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out as mid-level lapse rates approach 7
C/km with the presence of an EML and effective shear of 35-40 kt
thanks to a 50 kt jet at 700mb.

While there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with high
temperatures across the region Tuesday, latest ensemble trends have
shifted the track of the low slightly farther north. This will allow
portions of western NY to remain under better warm southwesterly
flow as 850mb temps climb around 14-16 degC, near the climatological
99th percentile for mid-October. This could support temperatures 10
degF above normal, especially across the Southern Tier. NBM shows
Tuesday afternoon highs for locations north of I-90 with
considerable spread still mainly tied to the timing of
precipitation, cloud cover, and the frontal passage.

This being said, storms will likely remain elevated due to poor low-
level lapse rates, but additional shifts in the low track could
provide more limited cloud cover improving boundary layer
destabilization and potential for afternoon thunderstorm development
over western NY. SPC has highlighted western NY with a Day 3
Marginal Risk for severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR cigs across western TAF sites will see deteoriating conditions
tonight, with MVFR-IFR cigs overnight. Any shower activity that
wraps back in across the region from the northwest shield of the
system will potentially reduce VSBYs at times to 4-6SM. The risk for
any showers should end after 06Z, but the MVFR/IFR CIGs will likely
hold through Monday morning, then gradual improvement from west to
east Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with rain showers possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Restrictions likely in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Rain showers are expected to continue through much of the day today
before moving off to the east headed into Monday morning. Winds will
be variable Monday morning before turning southwesterly Monday night
into Tuesday across the lower Great Lakes ahead of the next cold
frontal passage. Rain showers expected Tuesday and southwest winds
10-20 kt will turn northwesterly Tuesday night behind the front.
Waves will be 3 to 6 feet Tuesday which may bring another round of
Small Craft Advisory conditions. High pressure will build over the
Great Lakes for mid-week veering winds to out of the north by
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/Brothers
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...Brothers

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion