Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
308
FXUS61 KBUF 080526
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1226 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate lake effect snow southeast of the will continue through
early Saturday morning, mainly across Oswego County. Low pressure
will then pass just south of the area late Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning, producing a period of widespread snow across
the entire region with modest accumulations. Lake effect snow
showers will linger southeast of Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon
through early Monday, with additional minor accumulations.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Main focus for impactful weather the next 12 hours will be ongoing
lake effect snows east-southeast off Lake Ontario. Radar imagery
this evening showing a relatively disorganized band across Oswego
and southern Lewis counties, though broad enough to clip northern
Cayuga and southern Jefferson counties as well. With BUFKIT
equilibrium levels hovering between 6-7k feet overnight, moisture
extending well through the DGZ, and weak upstream connections to
Lake Huron, we should see a decent amount of fluff across Oswego
County (additional 3-6"), with comparatively lower amounts (2-4")
across the immediately adjacent locales. These occasionally moderate
snows should persist until the sfc high and drier airmass cause EQLs
to fall more substantially later Saturday morning. Winds remain
rather brisk over and east of Lake Ontario this evening, helping to
carry the band further inland though as these relax late tonight the
band should shrink back towards the shoreline.
Outside the main lake effect area...A few flurries may fall out of
the patchy lower cloud cover across WNY and the North Country,
otherwise cold and quiet weather overnight as the sfc high builds
east to western NY and northern PA by Saturday morning. Temps will
dip to the low/mid teens, with a few single digit readings possible
across the hilltops by daybreak.
Our attention Saturday will then turn to a fast approaching vigorous
shortwave ripping across the central Great Lakes. As the sfc low
nears the eastern Great Lakes chances for snow will increase late
Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday evening. That said, there
continue to remain some amount of uncertainty with the placement of
the greatest snowfall with this system. Again there has been a trend
northward with the higher snowfall amounts. This may in large part
be due to the higher snowfall ratios the further north you go.
Eitherway...we still are `not` looking at a significant snowfall
event with a range of 2-6", with localized higher amounts.
Additionally...given how fast this system moves through it wouldn`t
be out of the question to see snowfall rates approach an inch per
hour at times. The system will reform off and rapidly pull away from
the New Jersey/Long Island coast Saturday night, causing these
higher snowfall rates to taper off from southwest to northeast. We
will struggle to completely let go of the snow overnight however, as
a fair measure of wrap-around, upslope, and even lake enhanced snow
showers are expected across the forecast area as flow turns north/
northwesterly behind the system.
A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect for the entire area
beginning late Saturday afternoon-evening into the day Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid-level trough axis centered over far eastern New York will
continue to slide east into New England. In its wake, zonal flow
will set up across New York State Sunday through Monday, though a
weak shortwave will pass through late Sunday/Sunday Night.
Initially, surface low pressure that supported synoptic snow
Saturday night will now be just off shore near Cape Cod by Sunday
morning, to the west an area of surface high pressure will lie
across the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes. Surface high pressure
will gradually slide east across the Great Lakes through Monday
night into Tuesday morning.
Initially in the wake of the synoptic system Sunday morning, the
area will be beneath northwest flow along with temperatures at 850mb
becoming marginally cold enough to support lake effect snow
southeast of both lakes Erie and Ontario. A shortwave trough passage
across the lower Great Lakes Sunday afternoon/night will resulting
in colder air to advect in across the area supporting 850mb
temperatures to drop down to -15C. Overall, with the shortwave
passage and the drop in temperatures, expect an uptick in lake
effect snow southeast of the lakes, especially off of Lake Ontario
Sunday night.
Surface high pressure will continue to build east across the lower
Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday. Lake effect southeast of Lake
Ontario Monday morning will continue to linger throughout the day
and night. As high pressure crosses the area Monday night through
Tuesday, dry air will advect into the region along with causing
winds to veer to the southwest. Lake effect snow showers will peter
out and gradually shift north to the Saint Lawrence Valley by
Tuesday afternoon.
Overall, with the lake effect snow showers expect light snowfall
accumulation with a couple to a few inches possible southeast of the
lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mid-level pattern becomes highly amplified across the lower 48
the second half of the work week. A trough will dig across Rockies
and Plains while surface low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast.
This system will approach the Northeast while bringing a period of
wintry weather Wednesday night through Friday.
A cold front will move through the region Tuesday night which may
bring a period of snow showers. Surface high pressure should provide
mostly dry, perhaps some lingering light snow showers and cold
weather across western and north-central NY Wednesday. Model
consensus brings the area of low pressure north along the spine of
the Appalachians and moves it off the Mid-Atlantic coast or into New
England Wednesday night into Thursday. There are many details to
iron out at this time, however pattern recognition and model
consensus has the eastern Great Lakes region on the cold side, which
could mean a widespread snow event. Changes in the track especially
if there is a westward shift may draw some warmer air into the
region and result in a wintry mix.
Accumulating lake effect snow showers are possible behind this
system Friday through Friday night. Cold weather is likely Wednesday
through Friday night with daytime highs below freezing and lows in
the teens across western NY and the single digits east of Lake
Ontario.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A band of light to moderate lake effect snow will continue southeast
of Lake Ontario through early to mid morning, with local IFR/LIFR
centered on Oswego County and the southern Tug Hill region. All of
this will avoid the terminals, with just scattered flurries and VFR
outside of the main lake effect band. The lake effect snow will
weaken through the morning hours and dissipate by midday.
Our attention then turns to a low pressure system, which will move
into the Ohio Valley this afternoon, and then pass just south of the
area tonight. This will spread a shield of widespread accumulating
snow into the eastern Great Lakes starting late this afternoon, with
the widespread snow peaking in intensity during the evening hours.
The snow will produce widespread LIFR conditions for a 5-8 hour
period as it crosses the region, with VSBY possibly approaching
1/2SM at times in moderate bands of snow. The accumulating snow will
then diminish to more intermittent light snow from west to east
after midnight, with conditions improving to MVFR/VFR by daybreak
Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday...MVFR/IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the
lakes.
Monday...VFR/MVFR in most areas, local IFR in lake effect snow near
the southeast corner of Lake Ontario.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR and local IFR with a chance of snow
showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds continue to subside as sfc high pressure continues to build
across the lakes overnight. Small Craft Advisories remain in place
for the Lake Ontario nearshores into Saturday morning to cover
lingering elevated wind/wave action.
Low pressure will then pass just south of the area Saturday night
through Sunday. Northeast winds will increase Saturday night, then
become northwest Sunday, with a period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Sunday for NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for NYZ004>008-014.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ005-008.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LOZ042-
043.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
LOZ044-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/PP
NEAR TERM...AR/PP
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...AR/PP
NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion