Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
116
FXUS61 KBUF 211805
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mix of snow and rain east of Lake Ontario tonight.
2) Widespread rain Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday
night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A mix of snow and rain east of Lake Ontario tonight.
Clipper low will track along a baroclinic zone orientated NW to SE
across the Great Lakes, with the center of the low sliding from
the upper Great Lakes tonight to northern New York Sunday. A
period of warm advection snow will develop east of Lake Ontario
tonight before changing to mainly rain by Sunday morning, as
warmer air spreads northward. A brief mix with sleet/freezing
rain is possible before the transition to all rain. Snow
accumulation should be minor (
NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion