Forecast Discussion

825
FXUS61 KBUF 151836
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
236 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added low chances of showers near the Saint Lawrence River today.

Increased winds and wind gusts across the region for Wednesday night
through Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong system is expected to bring a period of gusty winds and
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system is expected to bring a period of
gusty winds and showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through
Thursday.

A longwave trough will settle across eastern Canada and the Great
Lakes region through the week. A notably cooler airmass will reside
across the region. Unsettled weather will begin Wednesday as a weak
system moves across the Central Great Lakes. A warm front will usher
in moisture and forcing and scattered showers are expected to move
across the region. A few thunderstorms are possible from the Finger
Lakes region to the eastern Lake Ontario region however instability
is expected to be weak. Low-end wind gusts to 25 mph are expected
inland from the Lakes.

A potent shortwave trough and a deep surface low for mid-June will
move northwest of the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Local
research suggests a favorable track for strong winds for western and
north-central NY. A 60-70kt low-level jet is expected to move from
southwest to northeast across the region Wednesday night. A surface
inversion will inhibit deep mixing, however a south-southeast
surface wind will may lead to strong downslope winds. Confidence is
low as deep moisture moves into the region with the strong jet and
may stabilize the surface inversion and limit downslope winds. Then,
the surface low is expected to move north of Lake Ontario and the
Saint Lawrence River Thursday and a pre-frontal trough and cold
front will move across the forecast area. A period of strong
southwest winds is possible Thursday. Wind gusts may exceed 45 mph
with higher confidence of wind gusts higher than 50 mph northeast of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The core of the strongest winds will
move east of the area later Thursday and winds will slowly diminish
through Thursday night.

Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25-0.75" Wednesday
night through Thursday, with less than 0.25 inches across the
Finger Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cool airmass with westerly flow has resulted in a widespread
cumulus field across the eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon.
MVFR ceilings have persisted east of Lake Erie and east of Lake
Ontario. Ceilings have been slow to scatter out at KJHW and KART.

Widespread VFR conditions are expected tonight as mid to high level
clouds expand across the region tonight.

Southwest winds will increase Tuesday, with gusts up to 25 knots at
KIAG and KBUF. Lesser winds expected elsewhere.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. Increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
An anomalously cool airmass for mid-June will spread across the
Lakes early this week. A westerly flow on the Lakes will continue to
produce Small Craft conditions on Lake Ontario, and choppy
conditions on Lake Erie today. Winds will back to the southwest on
Lake Erie this afternoon which may result in a brief period of 15-20
knots before subsiding this evening. A light southwest wind will
continue on the Lakes tonight through Tuesday.

A deep low is expected to move northwest of the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday night through Thursday. This system will likely bring
increasing winds and waves and subsequently marine headlines. An
area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during this time.
Guidance continues to suggest that we could see winds gusting up to
35 knots on both lakes approaching low end gales.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion