SPC MD 1848

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern South Dakota into southwestern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071023Z - 071300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to increase in coverage, with
stronger storms accompanied by small to marginally severe hail
before consolidating into a more prominent cluster by 7-9 AM CDT. 
With the risk for severe weather expected to remain limited, a
severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...To the south of digging mid-level troughing across the
international border area, an associated cold front continues to
advance slowly southeastward across the northern Great Plains toward
the Upper Midwest.  Based on forecast soundings, thermodynamic
profiles ahead of the front are characterized by a relatively cool,
stable boundary layer surmounted by dry elevated mixed-layer air
based around 850 mb.

However, within a pre-frontal corridor of lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection across eastern South Dakota into southwestern
Minnesota, moisture return is contributing to sufficient
destabilization to support increasing thunderstorm development.  
Deeper boundary-layer based moisture return appears confined to a
narrow corridor along a southwesterly pre-frontal low-level jet,
which is forecast to nose across the South Dakota/Minnesota state
border area through 13-15Z, before being overtaken by the cold
front.

Aided by destabilization in the presence of increasing large-scale
ascent, thunderstorm development may continue to increase into a
consolidating/upscale growing cluster.  As this occurs, the
potential for small to marginally severe hail in stronger storms may
remain limited and/or tend to diminish, and a lingering near-surface
inversion layer probably will minimize the risk for severe surface
gusts.

..Kerr/Smith.. 08/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45389640 45519545 45319454 44259435 43549569 43429654
            43709737 45389640 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN